Foreign policy (long read) writes things are not looking good. What’s your take?
Foreign policy (long read) writes things are not looking good. What’s your take?
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The world isn’t, but there’s a loose Bannon in The White House that is.
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You mean President Bannon?
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That’s the one. I read that lengthy article with interest last night. He seemed a little to be building his logic with a foregone conclusion which itself isn’t logical. As a Neocon, Kagan still thinks bombs and bullets rule, but I’m not convinced. Global conflict by that means makes no sense to anyone. I can see Protectionism and Nationalism leading to global cyber warfare though. Still, Bannon has already said there will be major shooting wars in The South China Seas and in the Middle East within 10 years, so I can see that, at least as long as he remains on the NSC (absurd!). This lot may not last, and I think it likely Pence and the old school GOP will take over sooner rather than later. The CIA can outwit Trump’s private security, or maybe there’ll be an impeachment? We live in hope.
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Indeed, Hariod! One MUST hope.
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Can you see this lot lasting, Carmen?
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No, I cannot. But what I’ve read about Mike Pence isn’t good either – he’s a Dominionist and the Religious Right’s poster boy. So I see trouble ahead either way. 😦
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The guy looks like Bela Lugosi’s Dracula with grey hair.
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Yes, there’s that, but (I think?) he’s not suffering from a dangerous clinical condition such as Trump’s, and he’d shift Bannon off the NSC and off the scene altogether — wouldn’t he?
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Therein lies the problem, Hariod. Two power-hungry individuals vying for control. 😦
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He most likely would. Maybe we need to see him tweet too, we could have an idea of his thoughts 🙂
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It would be lots of stuff about creationism, the loving, theocratic power of Jesus, and the evil of women’s bodies. You know, typical GOP horseshit.
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Their interference with education, or basically everything gets to me
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They are quite disgusting.
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You know things are bad when Ayatollah Khamenei who has not thought it humane to cancel a fatwa on Rushdie thinks the president has failed morally http://edition.cnn.com/2017/02/07/politics/iran-khamenei-trump-comments/index.html?sr=twCNN020717iran-khamenei-trump-comments0242PMVODtopLink&linkId=34212436
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I am doubtful the GOP will shove tRump under the bus when and if it gets to a point they think he is gone way over. They seem to defend almost all his moves. From what I hear, Pence doesn’t make it any better. A case of from the frying pan into the fire.
I agree with you on cyber warfare but someone will want to try out a new missile launcher or a new gun. So I am not putting it off the table.
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How would Pence not be at least some kind of an improvement on a hideously dangerous Narcissistic Psychopath, Mak?
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I think he would.
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The GOP and their 15th Century view of the world is what paved the way for the arrival of the great, orange Trumpanzee. Push an agenda of xenophobia, right wing theocracy, and hatred of the poor, and Trumpanzee is what comes of it. Yeah, he’s their boy, alright.
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And that, my friend, is quite disturbing
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It certainly feels a bit as if we’re being talked into one i.e. talking up THE ENEMY -whoever that is. We did all the bogey man stuff during the Cold War. But I guess these days with Cyber Corp, it suits certain big corporations to create conflict hither and thither – I mean we’ve talked ourselves into a world war before – WW1 being a case in point and the biggest waste of humanity imaginable for no apparent purpose other than to sow the seeds for the next one. Oh how the arms manufacturers are laughing all the way to the bank. Which makes me wonder why do we never remember to ask ‘Who benefits?’ If we did, why might get a bit of a fix on who the enemy actually is.
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Who benefits? That, Tish, is the billion dollar question.
Why are we spending so much to pile up weapons?
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Well, no matter what happens, America is great, again. Right?
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Yes, greater than it never has been!
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All world powers/empires lose their place after they think they are indestructible. America will end up like Rome… and all the others before it. Trump is opening the door to our most vulnerable targets… he is acting like an asshole, and we the people, will pay for his ego trip if he is not ousted fast.
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I dreamt last night that I ousted him. I felt relieved….then I woke up, and felt like crap – he was still there. Not giving up hope for impeachment;
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Don’t give up hope. Maybe he will abdicate.
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Maybe there are people who think the fate of Rome, Greece, Persia and Egypt cannot befall America
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They have a special name: Republicans.
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Well, to them, tRump is making America great again after years of being run down by a holidaying president and judges allowing terrorists into the country. Bad
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Repugnantcins are thrilled there’s no longer a black guy in the White House.
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Yep. Those will be the most surprised…
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No. The world is enjoying (more than less) the peace and has zero desire for such insanity. Unfortunately, there’s a madman who wants and need one, to prove his manhood, to cement his greatness; we all know who he is. And I earnestly hope that some ‘constitutional organ’ will remove him before he causes that to happen. There’s no ‘real enemy’ out there, so he is creating one.
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If there is no enemy, one has to be created. Where do you think the modern weapons are to be tried?
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Given the results of the recent presidential election here in the USA, I believe we are on the cusp of another major war. The leadership in this country is extremely focused on “their way or no way” policies that are hard-line xenophobic and irreconcilable with any hope of moderation. The new president is a complete fool who opens his mouth and starts speaking without any thought to the consequences of his words. As long as he and those of his mindset are in power, I see only war and destruction as a result of their regime. I hope that you had a nice weekend, my Kenyan brother! Much love and many naked hugs!
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I did have a nice weekend.
How can he be so reckless. His tweets belong to an unhinged mind
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That’s one of the MANY reasons I did NOT vote for the fool!
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Oh, Mak. As one of my professors used to say, “Can we not put that thought into the air?” . ..sigh. ..
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One of my teachers used to say the cat is already outta the bag 🙂
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Let’s put aside the megalomaniac Trump for a moment…
Our world civilization is over-stressed from overpopulation, degrading natural resources, escalating climatic changes, rapidly advancing technologies (which are difficult for the larger populace to adapt to), social fragmentation, populist angst, in addition to the rise of political and religious extremism. It’s a tinderbox ready to ignite.
Now, put the megalomaniac Trump back into the mix…
What do you think is going to happen?
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Robert, you do have a way of crystallizing things. Unfortunately concise.
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Thanks, Carmen.
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America’s gonna be great again?
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Yes, a “great” fiasco I believe.
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Like before the emancipation of women and slaves?
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Yeah, Just like that. Ask any tRump supporter, and they’ll agree. Life was SO much better for wealthy, white guys back when there was slavery and woman couldn’t vote or offer opinions on anything. Yep. America. I’m SO proud these days to live here.
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I think you need to remind yourself, inspired, that there are STILL far more people in the States who think exactly like you do; they are all looking at life with the same sense of dismay. 😦
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Very true. I’m very encouraged by the amount of anti-tRump activism I see. We can make a difference if we keep fighting. FYI, I friggin’ HATE tRump more and more every day.
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I can’t stand to even hear his voice. We don’t watch much TV but do try to catch the suppertime news. It’s inevitable that he’ll make a guest appearance and has every day for months. I heard from someone in Australia today and it’s the same there – we are all asking ourselves WHEN we’re going to be able to get a tRump-free evening. But I am encouraged by the activism ongoing — it’s the only thing anyone can do.
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His voice makes my skin crawl.
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I have tRump free evening anytime I don’t log into twitter. Strange thing, Carmen, I have read online people saying how great he is as a president and so on.
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My favourite philosopher wrote and I paraphrase he who fights monster should care not become one. Don’t let the hate eat all of your bones.
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It won’t. I don’t have bones. I use an exoskeleton instead.
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I don’t know what to say to encourage you, dear brother, but let’s hope it is not for long. Let’s hope it passes like a bad dream
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I sure hope so.
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Yes, that period
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Everything seems ready for a small spark and it will be all boom boom.
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I suppose it is considered a “world war” only when the European nations are involved.
The reality my friend, in my opinion, the world has always been lurching from one war to another.
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Eric, that is an interesting way to look at it.
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Well, if the world didn’t hate us Americans enough already, Trump will convince them all to hate us equally.
Please world, understand that many of us do not support Trump or his insane agenda.
I only have enough ammo to hold out 2-3 days max. Need to start digging foxholes in the front yard… and a storm/fallout shelter. Food! We need more rice and beans dear!
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Don’t worry, the hate is well deserved. But it is mainly at your government and partially at the people for not demanding accountability for the drone attacks, the regimes your CIA has overthrown that have in worse ways destabilized entire regions
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Well since you put it that way I have no option but to come live with you 🙂
Even if the streets were lined with protesters, and even with news outlets reporting all the crap we pull, all we get are govt appointed hacks on the one side claiming sorrow and responsibility, and maybe they are looking in to it, or expressing sincere condolences, while in the meantime on the other side of that govt appointed hack, the same shit continues being done.
There is much to love about our country but the govt has gone downhill well before the Great Orange Jack Ass took office. And with that guy in office I sure as hell dont expect it to get better anytime soon.
Im beginning to hate myself…
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No, don’t hate yourself for your government. It would be a bad thing to do. I don’t hate myself that we have clowns in office.
I think each of us, wherever we are, have something to love about where we find ourselves but that should not stop us from calling our elected officials out for doing shit. We must express our displeasure the best way we can.
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You are of course correct. That was one of my improperly labeled tongue in cheek smart ass statements 🙂
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With the Thug administration now in Washington, and with no control over his ego other than conspiracy theorist yes-men, these are now the flashpoints (probably not full-scale wars, but certainly possible fire-fights):
1. Iran; exchanges along their gulf coast.
2. China: a) Taiwan;
b) South China Sea.
c) Diaoyu Islands (claimed by China and Japan).
3. The Korean peninsula.
4. Iraq; a ‘re-invasion’ (Thug’s own term) to claim oil ‘reparations’ for the original invasion.
5. Mexico, which Thug has threatened to invade to chase “bad hombres” (presumably drug cartels).
In addition, trade wars are likely between the US and the following countries: China and Mexico; and are possible between the US and Iran; Australia; South Korea, certain Latin American Countries; and even certain European countries, given Thug’s poorly disguised to help along and exploit a break-up of the European Union.
Since I know you’re in Africa, I should point out that, because Thug has no interest in your Continent, your nations are safe from such neo-colonial over-reach; on the other hand, also expect US aid to African nations to dry up, or get tied to increasingly exploitative ‘business deals.’
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He doesn’t deal in diamonds? Or has interests in oil? I hear there are American interests in Congo Kinshasa for their minerals and in SA. Then oil in Sudan, NIgeria, Angola and Libya and soon Kenya and Uganda.
I think African governments should stop relying on Aid.
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“I think African governments should stop relying on Aid. ”
I understand; but it’s preferable to have a Washington willing to provide aid, then one that doesn’t care if you live or die.
Let me clarify: Team Trump still sees Africa as “the Dark Continent;” sure they want African diamonds and oil; what they don’t want are Africans.
Muslims and Mexicans today – nonwhites tomorrow. In the Thug mind you’re all just potential enemies.
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There are arguments against Aid.
I think the governments in Europe and America knowingly give money to despots in Africa to allow them to continue to rape the continent and justify their aid. Trade is imbalanced between across the continents and these are the things that should change.
Africa must learn to stand on its own. They cannot produce crude oil, export it only to import refined oil. Produce coffee beans, export it at a song and buy refined coffee at prices above the roof.
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All true; but much worse under Thug (who doesn’t even have the brains to be a hypocrite about it).
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I read the article, and I would like to point out to the writer, that “you keep saying that word, but I do not think it means what you think it means” – revisionist. He addresses nations as singular entities, but that
is a naïve view on the world. The leaders of China and Russia still have to answer to their own citizens and the ideologies they claim to hold. Just as much as the US leaders.
The writer seems to think, that Russia and China are kept in check by US military and agressive politics, but in reality the failed wars the US has fought starting from Korea have already revealed how inflated the most expensive military on the planet actually is. If US economics could not withstand a war against a failed state such as Irak and if it could be utterly defeated by the determination of small Vietnam, how could it possibly stand in competition to such practical military might as Russia or especially China in a limited war?
On the contrary, the US has set an example of global morals where it claims justification in attacking on sovereign countries without the blessing of the UN and when such a blessing is obtained, it has been sometimes achieved by very little short of blatant lying. Russia has now only been following on that same path of imperialism.
The writer sets US imperialism in quotes, as if there did not exist such a thing. But it exists and it is a result of ideological capitalism. A revisionist version of colonialism.
The US has the biggest arsenal of nukes, but those are ridiculous weapons, as one really can not use them. The only thing they confirm is that any country that wants to make sure the US shall not invade them has to aquire a nuke as soon as possible. If they are ever used and the taboo is broken, what then? Collapse of civilization at the very least, but far more likely a global extinction. Then there are the religionist madmen who expect the end of the world to be a good thing.
The Chinese president commented on the world state in Davos pointing out, that the real problem in world economics is not automatization, or globalization, but actually the ever growing difference between income of the common people and the amount of property just few major capitalists hold. (He is a communist after all, but he is not wrong, is he?) It is the desperation and powerty, resulting from that disparity, that feeds the current populist segragationist, isolasionist and frankly tribal moralistic politics in many countries. Such desparation is also fed by the commercialism, that tells us that our lives are not fulfilled and happy, unless we own as much as the very few richest among us.
At the moment history seems to repeat itself in a way. The western armies are once again – just as they were at the end of the colonialist era – small professional contingents (yes even those of the US) spread thinly, across the globe to controll small developing nations and economies, to force their dictators or otherwise regressive governments to provide cheap raw materials for the western corporations. The so called “middle classes” have so far benefited from the “trickling down” from these corporations, but as no economical political alternative to capitalism seems to survive any longer, the capitalists have once again grown greedier, and would not want to share with the middle classes. The western armies are really no match for the vast and well equipped peoples armies of the eastern empires of Russia and China, but the economic strength behind the western countries has poised a threat, that in a prolonged major conflict they could also marshall comparable armies.
Every leader of a nation needs to convince their citizens of the casus belli, before engaging in a war. The global rise of right wing nationalist populism is a factor that makes such easier and that is the risk for ww3 that I see, since populist leaders are often appealing to emotion and as such are led by the spur of the moment, not unlike their supporters.
WW2 was very much a result of US protectionism in the economic crises in the turn of 1929-1930. The international commerce slowed down and the limited vision of the common man gave political base for fascist populism to grow.
Hitler had a plan for the Jews to send them all to Palestine, to avenge defeat in WWI to the French and to stop the advance of communism further to Europe, but it all got out of his hands, because he was not that well connected to reality and he relied on “alternative facts” like making Germany great again and Germans being somehow destined to lead the world.
Sorry, this came out a bit long, but this is a big question…
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What a great analysis.
I recall the CEO of Alibaba also told the US that they shouldn’t complain about a bad economy or something of the sort when they have been putting so much money in the military complexes instead of developing human capital.
May, the UK PM, said she would use nuclear weapons in an aggression. I don’t know if such people know the devastation this would have? I think you make a lot of sense, any country that wants to remain safe from the US aggression should have nuclear warheads and a means of deployment. Having an ICBM is the way to go.
The US can have no moral ground of telling some other nation, say China not to invade Taiwan. They have been invading countries or toppling regimes for no good reason at all. And as you say, it is not their military might that has kept China and Russia in check. Iraq is a mess, Libya is a mess after a combined NATO and US bombardment, Afghanistan is a mess. There is practically no war they have won that they would prop as an example to what they can do. Unless their aim is to disrupt livelihoods.
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I think their aim is profit. All the bullets and munitions used in Iraq have to replaced. PROFIT!
General Smedley Butler and his “War is a Racket” pamphlet is my favorite colloquial analysis of the reality. We fool ourselves when we try to find ideological “reasons” for these wars. They are just profit-making opportunities is all.
Jello Biafra also nailed it (seminal 1980s American Punk Band):
http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/deadkennedys/kinkysexmakestheworldgoround.html
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Brian, you and I agree. The aim of war is profit.
Now, those lyrics!
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Our defense forces invaded Somali a few years back. There has been reports their dealings are not straight either
https://issafrica.org/iss-today/think-again-who-profits-from-kenyas-war-in-somalia
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and a better report is here. All for profit
Click to access Black%20and%20White%20Kenya’s%20Criminal%20Racket%20in%20Somalia.pdf
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Thanks, though I did not really answer your main question. Did I? My answer, is that the world has been gearing up for WW3 from the very end of WW2, because, as you say, it is a method of making money and because it is a way to hold power, even when you have nothing at all to give to people and you would only want to exploit them. Riding and encouraging their fears is effective, when you do not want to discuss how to make the world a better place.
How close is global war now? Well, closest we have come to WW3 was during the Reagan administration when he and the right wing hawks loudmouthed about Soviet Union being some sort of “Evil Empire” and based on their conviction of being able to militarily somehow resolve this problem, they had painted, they tested their ability in the “Operation Able Archer”. That did not turn out well and suddenly the foreign policy of Reagan changed from bombastic militarism, to trying to make peace with the Soviets. However, it could have gone so much more wrong and it was on the brink of turning into an actual WW3 in Europe. But no worries, Trump seems to be the bicth of Putin, or at very least his ultimate fanboy, so if he does not try to start a war with China – From wich his generals, if they are even nearly competent, should advice him to restrain himself, even if he got angry and tweeted something childish.
There is a growing movement in the world to divide it once again along the lines of religious cultural lines, like during the crusades once it was. So we would percive people as our enemies for magical, super-, or otherwise unnatural and ultimately nonsensical reasons. This is a direct result of modern day colonialism and capitalism, where as a continuation to the colonial world the rich “west”, has been exploiting the poor “south”. The ridiculous thing is, that the warmongers of this religious-cultural war on both sides are the same sort of “conservatives”, who share the same values, like authoritarianism, ultra-nationalism, macho bull-attitude, misogynism, anti-feminism, homophobia, idolization of greed and selfishness and the only freedom they allow is might makes right liberty of the strong to oppress the weaker ones. In this way, the “immigration critical”, the Trumps, the Putins, the Netanyahoos, the neo-nazies and the ISIS morons are all the same bunch and share the very same core values. Further more, they seem unable to recognize, that they actually are on the same side against the modern world. Let us hope they never do, because I doubt they could come to the realist conclusion, that they were wrong, rather they would only turn against us as one…
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I think in both instances you have answered my questions quite well.
I think it works well for the powers that be in Washington to have an enemy. That way they can justify the amounts they spend in the military complex. First they had the communist as the enemy. Then they have a war on drugs and terrorism. Since all these wars are losing ventures, they may have a war against Islam couched in war against terrorism but actually just an attempt to relive the crusades or whatever they were called in the days they were fought.
The two world wars were European affairs. And before that the Napoleonic wars were also European affairs. It does seem to me, we need to look to Europe to see the potential for the next world war.
Trump, Putin and Xi may not be the ones to start it. But then again, one can never be sure.
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In answer to your post question … I HOPE NOT!!
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Makes two of us
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I don’t think it’s about to happen soon.
The great countries/forces wouldn’t allow it.
It’s the 21 century, the world is more developed, people are more organised. I believe a war on a world level could be prevented.
P.S. I missed so many posts of yours.
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No problem mate. It’s always good to see you.
Human beings acting in large groups cannot be counted on to not to go to war if they have been persuaded that is the only right thing to do
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