I am here thinking


That maybe we here in Africa & especially here in Kenya have got our priorities around this pandemic wrong.

Think of it this way. Since the first case was announced almost a month ago, 14 people are said to have died of the virus. In that time more people have been killed by police enforcing the curfew, mudslides, malaria & starvation among other deaths we deal with on a daily basis.

In the meantime, we have brought some businesses to a halt & I am sure as is common to this regime, we have created a few millionaires through no hard work on their part but sleaze.

By closing schools and colleges, we have cost school going children to lose time, endangered many others for whom school provides a safe haven, even if just for a brief moment.

Well, I guess social distancing measures work. I have seen vids about the Spanish flu of years past & how different cities faired. Maybe medics are right that this disease is different from the viruses we already know & we should stay at home for the time being, at least.

I want to know how some places have only 1 case since they announced their first case. Was that the only testing kit they had? Or did they find this patient zero before they came into contact with any other person?

I guess I am tired of these restrictions. It’s not really that I want to go anywhere specific. No. If you have watched the movie Sarafina, there is this scene Ms Masombuga says all she wants is freedom. That’s all I want. To move when I want to. I hate masks.

I just want all this to end. That’s all.


Click on the file above to see data for any country you have in mind.

 

About makagutu

As Onyango Makagutu I am Kenyan, as far as I am a man, I am a citizen of the world

106 thoughts on “I am here thinking

  1. Like the old adage about curiosity killing the cat, impatience in this case could kill the human. Underestimate COVID-19 at your own risk. It is many times more infectious and deadly than the seasonal flu, and that’s why it poses such a danger to society. Trust the medical experts. They know more than we do.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Ron says:

      The danger is way overstated, because the stats coming from the CDC and NYC Health show that >98% of the fatalities are attributable to the elderly and those who had underlying health problems.

      Like

      • makagutu says:

        I think I agree with you. The danger is way overstated and we are at a point where saying so seems to be politically incorrect.

        Like

      • Overstated? The latest coronavirus pandemic statistics put the number of confirmed cases and deaths worldwide at 2,993,000 and 208,000 respectively which represents a death rate of 6.95%. In the U.S, the figures are 990,000 and 56,000 for a death rate of 5.66%. For comparison, the seasonal flu death rate in the U.S. is about 0.1% or 56.6 times less than COVID-19. The number of U.S. fatalities will probably exceed the total number of Americans killed during the Vietnam War later this week.

        Liked by 1 person

        • Ron says:

          Yes. Overstated in relation to whom it affects most.. Here is the NYC Death summary as of April 27, 2020:

          Click to access covid-19-daily-data-summary-deaths-04272020-1.pdf

          Of the the 11,708 confirmed deaths, only 66 had no underlying health problems. That works out to lest than 1% of all C-19 deaths.

          In comparison, homicides have claimed over 90 people YTD (10 in the last week alone) and crime rates across the city have surged since the lockdown began.

          Like

          • Nan says:

            So what’s you point? And knowing/sharing these statistics does what?

            Liked by 1 person

            • Ron says:

              The salient point is that in over 99% of the cases the patients had underlying health conditions.

              Like

            • basenjibrian says:

              I might ask the same question of breathless on-the-hour reports from hysterical media outlets,. “an 85 year old woman died yesterday, raising the death toll in a City of 300,000 people to 7 Time for the police to start shooting anyone outside at any time”

              Like

              • makagutu says:

                Here the press briefing from the ministry of health is daily. You hear of the X number cases tested y number are positive & one has a history of travel so I ask how when the airports were closed weeks ago!

                Like

          • I see now. COVID-19 deaths aren’t important to you as long as only old sick people die. However, that is just not the case. As of April 8th, New York state published demographic data on the initial 5,489 deaths. 964 (17.6%) were under 60 years of age, while 4522 (82.4%) were 60 or over. That means about 1 in 5 deaths were below retirement age. See: https://www.whec.com/coronavirus/new-york-releases-data-on-covid-19-deaths/5695809/

            Homicides, vehicular accidents, and other forms of preventable deaths have always been addressable concerns of government. Otherwise, the number of fatalities would be even higher. Pandemic deaths are also preventable.

            Liked by 1 person

            • Ron says:

              It doesn’t change the fact that over 99% of those who died had underlying health conditions. Many people die every year from the flu and we don’t shut down the entire world.

              Like

              • Nan says:

                Gosh Ron. It’s apparent the powers-that-be throughout the world need you to help them run things and make studied decisions.

                Liked by 1 person

                • Ron says:

                  Sounds like a bandwagon fallacy. Just because everyone else runs around in a panic, doesn’t necessarily mean it’s warranted.

                  Like

                  • Nan says:

                    You’re absolutely right. Panic can kill people just as much as the existing danger. But to compare this pandemic with the common flu, IMO, is missing the mark entirely. Not to mention, people much smarter than both of us (no offense) seem to believe it’s just a wee bit more life-threatening.

                    Liked by 1 person

                    • Ron says:

                      Belief and opinion are irrelevant. The stats indicate unhealthy people die.

                      Like

                    • makagutu says:

                      I agree with you panic can kill. In Kenya, starvation is a stark reality & with locusts, poor weather & fake fertilizer sold by the government, asking people to stay at home without aid is inhumane. Our government can’t bail out businesses not can it write all of us cheques. So I think while recommending social distancing & stay at home orders, these should consider local conditions.
                      While I agree with you the people making these recommendations know things about viruses that we don’t, the consensus is not universal.

                      Like

                    • Nan says:

                      Mak, there’s no argument that this whole scenario is a “catch 22.” It’s one of those damned if you do and damned if you don’t situations.

                      I suppose because I’m in the “age bracket” that would be most affected, I tend to want to err on the side of caution. But I have family that are suffering so it isn’t as though I’m blind to that side of the picture.

                      As I’ve said elsewhere … if “they” would/could just start TESTING EVERYONE, it would allay a lot of fears and could get things back to “normal” much sooner. But alas. As with so many other “governmental” things, people can’t seem to stop bickering among themselves and get the job done.

                      Like

                    • makagutu says:

                      Our government fired the director of the medical research institute, it is claimed, that he didn’t deliver results on time!
                      Last night I was reading a post that got me thinking. In the beginning of the aids pandemic, those who were positive were stigmatized & didn’t receive the care they needed that would possibly have elongated their lives. The same is happening here. The govt is saying those who have recovered from covid19 are having a hard time reintegrating in society. Maybe we should change the approach. I don’t know but there are many things that in hindsight can be done differently.

                      Liked by 1 person

              • Predictably heartless…

                Liked by 1 person

                • Ron says:

                  Predictably fact-free retort.

                  Like

                  • basenjibrian says:

                    and the Covid Warriors, many of them retired, with independent funds, and/or in professions not destroyed by a hard shut down, are equally “heartless” to the victims of the “destroy society and the economy” approach to this epidemic

                    Liked by 1 person

                    • Ron says:

                      True. For the majority of the population, the mental stress of being kept locked down for weeks on end wondering when it will end and how you’ll recover financially assuming there’ll still be a job/business left to go to after all is said and done — presents a far greater health risk than than the threat of becoming ill from the virus.

                      Like

                    • makagutu says:

                      Here, it is starvation and malaria that present a much greater risk than covid19.
                      And now some 30k plus people have been made homeless by floods & landslides. Danger looms everywhere

                      Like

      • basenjibrian says:

        Italy historically has high death rates from respiratory disease.
        I also love how everyone is latching onto Covid for their own little pet topics. For example, Italy HAS socialized medicine, but that doesn’t stop the crew from implying that that would save us (note: I support single payer. But it is not a panacea). My nutty Trumpalo brother is a “carnivore” who insists that the only thing we need to eat is meat. So, of course, he finds one study that purportedly claims that high cholesterol will protect us from the virus!

        Like

    • makagutu says:

      Funny thing, the flu season here does pass without fatalities & if there are any, they are very few. It is not to underestimate C-19, it is looking at the available data and knowing my country that I write this. And I have tremendous respect for professionals, except in this case something was overlooked and we are now trying to save face.

      Like

      • I have tremendous respect for professionals.

        I don’t believe you. See my reply to Ron.

        Like

        • basenjibrian says:

          One can “have respect” for professionals while questioning their policy recommendations,. “Professionals,” like all human beings, can go along with the crowd, can jump to conclusions, can ignore issues outside their own range of expertise. How many more people would suffer and die if we shut down the economy for every infectious disease?

          Like

          • makagutu says:

            Exactly. Human beings are bound to err, even the best of us make mistakes.
            And in this situation, we have professionals acting based on what others are doing and sometimes not Cognizant of life local situations.
            It’s not like I am going to ask Cuomo to not close the subway when NYC is on fire.

            Like

          • You’re conflating erroneous statements by individuals with the consensus weight of evidence-based expert opinion. Denying the unpleasant realities of COVID-19 is no different than denying climate change. This isn’t a choice between economic prosperity and public health. Unless we reverse this pandemic, the economy will not recover. People will be too wary of returning to their normal lives.

            This debate over coronavirus also exposes another big societal problem. While skepticism is generally healthy, it can be extremely destructive when it compels people to deny basic facts and objective sources of knowledge. When that happens, as is happening now, distrust grows exponentially and social discussion descends into irresolvable disputes. And, that is precisely what ideological extremists want.

            Like

            • basenjibrian says:

              Argument from authority, Robert. IN the early 20th century, a strong percentage of doctors advocated forcibly for forced sterilization of the “unfit”. And by unfit, some of the wackier included impure races or ethnicities, but that was a minority position. When you are talking public policy and economics, you are talking voodoo and there is not always such a obvious answer,

              Like

              • The exception always disproves the rule, eh? What a crock! I suppose you believe Dr. Hitler exterminated 6 million Jews because he was a scientist.

                Like

                • basenjibrian says:

                  No. History is rife with similar examples of wacky theories and “professional” recommendations, Not saying this is the case here, the recommendations are not necessarily “wacky”, but they ARE

                  Like

                  • basenjibrian says:

                    blind to some of the economic and social implications of the “shut everything down” program. And the media is now playing up exactly what I worry about…what if Covid comes back? The common cold is a covid virus…Maybe a vaccine is not going to happen.

                    Like

                    • makagutu says:

                      That’s the likely scenario. That either a vaccine will not be available or Gilead sciences will make it so expensive only a few will afford which boils down to the same thing.

                      Like

                • Ron says:

                  Yes, it’s eerily similar to the physics experiments conducted by Dr. Truman in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

                  Like

              • makagutu says:

                I think there are two fallacies involved: argument from authority & numbers.

                Like

            • Ron says:

              To which “experts” are you referring?

              Is it to the “experts” at the World Health Organization (WHO), which tweeted that there was no evidence of human-to human transmission on the 14th of January 2020:

              and advised against any travel restrictions for over two months?

              Or is it to the “experts” from the CDC, like Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of the infectious disease unit of the National Institutes of Health, who said,
              “Itโ€™s not something that I think weโ€™re even considering” when asked about travel restrctions following the Senate briefing on the 24th of January?

              Or is it the “experts” at the NYC Health Department, like Commissioner Oxirsis Barbot, who tweeted “I want to remind everyone to enjoy the parade and not change any plans due to misinformation spreading about #coronavirus.” on the 9th of February?

              Like

  2. We have no confirmed case here, & my husband was just in hospital with gall stones, & they told him right there that they are totally prepared, but no cases yet.
    We’re following the rules with limiting going out for food & medicines. We were never social people so life is not that different for us.
    I don’t wear a mask, but got a hat online that has an attached clear total face shield, so my eyes are protected too. I use plastic gloves & alcohol to spray my gloves, keypads at bank machines, etc. When I get home I wash my hands with the gloves on, remove the gloves, then wash my bare hands.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Nan says:

      I think people that truly care about other human beings — and not just themselves — are willing to take the extra steps necessary to protect the world around them. Unfortunately, from all indications (at least here in the States) these people are in the minority.

      Kudos to you and yours for your efforts!

      Liked by 2 people

    • makagutu says:

      I avoid going to busy supermarkets. I wear a mask in public but most of my business involves interacting with very few people. The few physical meetings we have had, we have been not more than 6 people.

      Liked by 1 person

      • basenjibrian says:

        We’ve gone to all Zoom meetings and conference calls. I have an internal interview for a promotion* next week, and it is through zoom (although the interviewer, I have known for 20+ years).

        * I have mixed feelings about it. The thought of leading these projects just makes me…TIRED.

        Like

  3. john zande says:

    The under-reporting of cases/deaths is truly astonishing.

    Liked by 2 people

  4. Ron says:

    Seems like a joke that 50 million Kenyans are forced to live under house arrest given there are only 355 confirmed cases and 14 deaths attributed to C-19.

    Liked by 2 people

  5. Dude, relax! Just drink down a bleach milkshake, and you’ll be fine! JESUS!! Stop listening to experts! Travel! Sing! Open all businesses! Drink bleach! Implant UV bulbs under your skin and run ’em 24 hours a day! TRUST me, Mak! You have NOTHING to worry about, and neither does ANYONE else in the world (unless you’re over 65, but fuck those mother fuckers! They should die any way–the fucking lazy wastes of space!) Now, let me present MY solution to this issue: Gas chambers and crematoriums for ANYONE over 65! Let’s just get rid of these wastes of life before some stupid fucking virus kills ’em off any way. Lazy fucks! In America, many older fucks are sucking my country dry with Social Security and Medicare. Fuckers! Let ’em die! Gas ’em! Cremate ’em! Lazy, stupid fucks! Force beach down their fuckin’ throats! Lazy fuckers! I am SO sick of listening to anyone on Covid19 other than Li’l Donna Trump! SHE is the only person being smart, calm, and sensible throughout this bullshit. So, listen to Donna! And me! Gas and cremate the elderly! And we will end this bullshit tomorrow! Yours in the All-Loving Arms of Jesus Christ, The Armchair Pontificator. Have a blessed day, my friend. ๐Ÿ™‚

    Liked by 1 person

  6. basenjibrian says:

    What bothers me is: What if it evolves and the vaccines don’t really work? Are we going to shut down the economy and society next year, too? What if Covid is just part of life and death now? What if it is more pernicious than Spanish flu and returns annually? Media personalities intoning seriously about “changing our lifestyles permanently” ignore that we are talking about pretty fundamental aspects of human life (socializing)…and they still have jobs and incomes and are not losing their homes.

    Like

    • makagutu says:

      I have seen reports that indicate those who have recovered can be reinfected or the virus reappears. So what happens?
      Are they implying curfews, lick downs and travel restrictions should become the new normal?
      I just think some have not thought about the long term implications of their proposals.

      Like

      • Nan says:

        For most … perhaps all … of us, the idea of living life differently is frightening. We’re “used” to it being a certain way. This defines us even in the everyday habits of our lives. To consider that we might have to alter … ever radically change … the way we go about living is something we simply do NOT want to do.

        But … we may have to. The virus may be the trigger, but it has already been approaching us through climate change.

        Like

        • makagutu says:

          I am imagining trying not to touch my face as the new normal ๐Ÿ˜ญ. It’s hard as it is already. Then people wearing masks. I might mistake my enemies for friends :-).
          Our government has allowed restaurants to open but under very stringent rules. I hope people keep them.

          Liked by 1 person

        • basenjibrian says:

          Nan: I don’t really buy that argument, I think it is actually a little…blithe and doesn’t really recognize the implications of what you are advocating,. Your “new normal” implies that human society will have to move to an even more atomized, isolated, INhuman status. Is protecting ourselves from a virus or viruses really worth it? Is it really even possible over the long term? The MAGA-hat wearing idiots protesting now are silly, but try and impose this kind of hysterica;l response over the long term?

          How is it even workable without mass economic collapse and the resulting far greater death tolls. The United States already can’t handle its indigent population now. I mean, I am frankly speaking rather antisocial myself. Absent a collapse of State government finances (and my pension) I could even survive without a job. But…a lot of people are in far worse shape and are far more sociable than I!

          Damn. For the first time I am strongly agreeing with RON! We are in strange times.

          Like

          • Nan says:

            I’m not advocating anything. I’m just saying (some) people need to recognize that life changes. Certainly major changes can’t –and won’t– be accomplished “overnight” for all the reasons you mentioned. But by the same token, it seems to me people need to quit living in the past and recognize we’re in a different world … in more ways than one … and become willing to make changes accordingly.

            Like

            • basenjibrian says:

              I’m not living in the past,. I am asking the advocates of “cower at home and lock everything up” to recognize the implications of their policies. Your future does not sound very supportable for a social species like humanity, Or the modern economy that is frankly needed to feed 8 billion people. You mention “climate change”. All the technology and investment needed to address THAT issue will require a modern economy as well. A collapsed economy means people burning everything that can burn…not good for Carbon.

              If anything, I am MORE pessimistic than the doom and gloomers. They speak as if “oh…give us another week. No, it will peak in another two weeks. There were 10 new cases in the Bay Area, we need another month” will work.

              Like

          • makagutu says:

            We live in strange times.
            Maybe robots will do all the work that requires close contacts & then those who own robots will be the billionaires. Those who can’t afford will join the homeless.
            Strange times in deed.

            Like

  7. justcalmwildness says:

    So what do you suggest the government do about Covid 19 considering how highly infective corona virus is and that so many families really can’t afford to tend to corona virus patients and the Government doesn’t have facilities to cater for too many patients?

    Like

    • basenjibrian says:

      What should the government do about the plague of deaths from cardiac illnesses, diabetes, etc.? Far, far more deaths. Maybe we should impose draconian limits on what foods can be produced and sold. Carpet bomb the Midwest to eliminate the corn crops that go into corn syrup and other perniciuous products. Ban advertising of fast foods and junk foods. After all, people are dying from these liufestyle illnesses associated with bad industrial food. We need the government to step in an stop it!

      Liked by 1 person

    • Ron says:

      Why does the government need to do anything?

      Kenya has an estimated population of ~50 million people. And according to the link below, there have been 374 confirmed cases, 14 deaths and 124 confirmed recoveries to date.

      https://corona.help/country/kenya#activity-nav

      Given those numbers, it doesn’t appear to be highly infectious in Kenya and the curfews were completely unnecessary.

      Liked by 1 person

      • justcalmwildness says:

        Well there isn’t enough testing being done if you ask me and Corona Virus cases are limited to two counties in Kenya ie Mombasa and Nairobi which are densely populated with approximately 6 million people. They only testing around 500 to 900 people daily.The writer suggested that the curfew and other restrictions were not good measures by the government to prevent the spread so I asked what he would have the government do. I think the curfews despite its disadvantages and the county to county movement restrictions are whats keeping this whole thing from blowing over. Curfews help reduce the wild nightlife in both Nairobi and Mombasa that’s they are there.

        Like

        • Ron says:

          I’ll grant that there may be inadequate testing. Yet of the ~18,000 tests conducted to date, only 374 tested positive, and what’s even more noteworthy is that the most densely populated areas have not seen any significant increase in the reported COVID-19 death rate — a striking contrast in comparison to other large urban areas across the world.

          So what could explain the difference? It’s unlikely to be the overnight curfew, because nations and cities with stricter curfews or complete lockdowns have experienced much higher death tolls. I propose it could be a combination of the following:

          – Kenya’s climate is relatively warm and sunny year round, which lessens the chances of getting infected with flu and other acute respiratory illnesses.

          – Kenya’s population is also relatively young (~60% are under 25 and >90% are under 55) and U.S. statistics show that COVID-19 disproportionately affects the old and those with underlying health problems. (Incidentally, the first reported COVID-19 death in Kenya was a 66-year-old male with diabetes.)

          – outside of the two aforementioned areas, Kenya’s overall population density is fairly low, which further lessens the likelihood of transmission.

          Liked by 1 person

          • justcalmwildness says:

            I will agree that the young population is a key factor in this but as for your other two points I disagree we are actually in the cold season so that really can’t be a factor. I think the measures actually help because it has not spread to other counties and the number of infected people has stopped increasing too fast. Most of the countries you mentioned took too long to take any measures eg US first case was in January 20 and they only reacted effectively recently. Suggesting that Kenya doesn’t keep being strict is asking us to accept death and poverty.

            Like

        • makagutu says:

          What would testing change? Would more tests mean the govt lifts the curfew? Will it change government’s response, i.e, take responsibility for holding people in quarantine and so forth? I doubt it. On the contrary what would happen would be more panic, stigma and all. And at some point, people will just defy the measures.

          Liked by 1 person

    • makagutu says:

      Highly infectious? Since we are talking about Kenya, there are many things it can do. For starters, it should be honest and forthright.
      But I have a long list of things the government should do.

      Liked by 1 person

      • justcalmwildness says:

        Yes , it’s highly infectious. The number of people who might be sick and not tested is very high. They only test 500 to 900 people daily considering the hotspots are Mombasa and Nairobi which has approximately 6 million people. I think if you are going to claim that the curfew, school closure and movement restrictions are not good measures by the government then you need to offer alternative solutions bearing in mind that how densely populated the hotspots in Kenya are, the fact that there too many people who can afford medical care, the government itself doesn’t have the facilities and the corruption cost that come all of this.

        Like

        • makagutu says:

          You raise good points. You said it was highly infectious and they tell us at the same time the relatives of Oyugi who was burried badly none of them tested positive and they came into contact with him.
          Schools would have finished their term one. They had only 3 weeks to go.
          Do you know the government has not been funding Kemri enough for them to even carry tests. And you and I know how corrupt this government is. So we can all be sure that over 30% of allocation for the pandemic will land in the pockets of the connected few

          Liked by 1 person

          • justcalmwildness says:

            Using one case to decide that the virus is not highly infectious is a little off, don’t you think? Who knows they washed their hands after? May they wore masks? May be their immunity is very strong. Schools are the easiest places to spread diseases. Think about the time a kid got measles and the next half the class had it. It only needs one kid to get Corona Virus then the whole school and their respective families will have it by the end of those three weeks. I understand the frustration faced school going students about this but this is something that had to happen. Well most of the money might get stolen and we know it that’s why we need to stick together as Kenyans and follow the rules put in place because we really can’t afford having too many people infected. Also next time we got the ballots lets choose better leaders despite the political affiliation and tribe.

            Like

            • makagutu says:

              I can add more cases. DG Kilifi, the Siaya priest, the kitui priest, Brenda & many more. The government said not one of their contacts got covid19. And there are many more. In fact, the government has been saying most of the cases came from quarantine centres that had been badly managed.
              Look at the exceptions you are willing to make to justify your case.
              While I agree schools can be serious grounds for disease transmission, the case in Kenya at that time and even now was overstated. And look even at what educationists are saying on the same. There are social costs for girls and other marginalised children being out of school. There are fears many might not get back to school.
              I am not saying we break the law, far from it. I am questioning the soundness of that law as it applies to our current situation.

              Liked by 1 person

              • justcalmwildness says:

                I think the sample is still to small to decide that. Considering the low tests done and also the possibility of not reaching all their contacts.As for the schools and the consequences of no school, these are unavoidable tradeoffs to make sure that the disease doesn’t kill off half the population. Sometimes in leadershi you really can’t win, you choose a greater evil and solve it. Like I said before, if you are questioning the soundness of law don’t just criticize it and leave it there. Criticize it and give solutions to the same problems without the issues you are raising.

                Like

                • makagutu says:

                  I already said schools should have finished the first term.
                  Your argument supports my case more than it does yours. If the tests done are low and these people are not flooding hospitals, the danger may have been overstated.
                  It is enough to challenge or critique an idea without offering an alternative

                  Liked by 1 person

                  • justcalmwildness says:

                    Depends on what you think is the greater evil. Letting people not finish school is a lesser evil than letting them dies. If you haven’t see 60% of people being treated of Corona are asymptomatic. You can have the disease and not have the symptoms, may be that’s the case. What’s the point of challenging the law if you are not willing to help create the change you want to see?

                    Like

                    • makagutu says:

                      You are mixing issues. One, I said schools could have ended their term without much risk as it were. So the balance of death and life does not arise.
                      I have seen that and my point is we cannot tell the extent to which the virus has spread since we have not carried tests to warrant making a decision. If say the government can show the one positive case from Kangemi yesterday has infected X number of people in that neighbourhood, then we can isolate that estate/ flat. Limit their movement and all.
                      My point a one suits all approach might not be the way to go.
                      I know for many, the argument is we should err on the side of caution than be sorry later. I agree with them.
                      Death comes to us anyway ๐Ÿ˜ญ.
                      And as I keep saying, a government that could allow contaminated food be sold for so many years is one that I can not trust.
                      Other people elsewhere might have good reasons to trust their governments, I don’t have such a reason.

                      Liked by 1 person

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